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NRF Predicts Healthy Holiday Spend

In an Oct. 27, 2021, media briefing, The National Retail Federation forecast strong holiday sales for online and brick-and-mortar retailers exceeding last year’s holiday spend by as much as 8.5 to 10.5 percent and revenues of $843.4 to $859 billion, according to NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay.

“We all know it’s been another historic year in terms of transformation and incredible growth in the retail industry, as we continue to work through both the changing behaviors of consumers, as well as the changes brought about by the pandemic, and any evolving external issues, related to supply chain, workforce, inflation and others,” Shay said. “Overall, 2021 is a much better year than 2020 for many reasons. Certainly, there’s been a lot more certainty about the way in which we handle the pandemic. And we’ve seen great progress on that front end for retailers.”

Observing encouraging signs of pre-holiday season momentum among consumers in Q4 2021, Shay noted household balance sheets have never been stronger, stating retailers are investing in supply chains to ensure they have products on their shelves to meet exceptional consumer demand.

For additional information about NRF’s retail holiday forecast, visit the NRF’s holiday page at .


Post-COVID retail

Concurring with Shay that the holiday season outlook is bright, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz stated that household spending has steadily increased throughout 2021..

“Pandemic-related supply chain disruptions have caused shortages of merchandise and most of this year’s inflationary pressure,” he said. “With the prospect of consumers seeking to shop early, inventories may be pulled down sooner and shortages may develop in the later weeks of the shopping season. However, if retailers can keep merchandise on the shelves and merchandise arrives before Christmas, it could be a stellar holiday sales season.”

Kleinhenz further noted that household wealth has reached record highs and retailers will provide jobs to between 500,00 and 665,000 seasonal workers, up from 486,000 seasonal hires during the previous year. In addition, weather patterns of cooler, wetter weather in the north and warmer, drier weather in the south, may drive strong retail sales, as it has in previous years, he added.


A previous version of this article appeared Wednesday, Nov. 3, 2021, in The Green Sheet:




Dale S. Laszig, vice president, content marketing at Mobile Marketing & Technology and managing director, DSL Direct, is a payments industry journalist and content strategist who writes for multiple trade journals. Follow her on LinkedIn at and @DSLdirect on Twitter.